PBC’s Middle‑Income Inflation Monitor June 2026

Although the SARB held the policy rate at 7% in July (a much-welcomed decision), it was a close call, with two of its six committee members voting for a hike. If global oil prices stay high, the SARB may be forced to hike again before the end of the year - a move that would compound the cost‑of‑living pressures on households already burdened by elevated debt‑service costs.

The bottom line? The middle‑class squeeze is not just a temporary fuel shock. It is also driven by structural costs (housing, transport, and insurance) that do not respond quickly to interest rate changes. Even as headline inflation cools in future, the burden on Middle‑Income households will persist.